The Kurds are the Key, Putin is the Mystery
Russia. Turkey. Iraq.
The Kurds are not the Palestinians.
The Kurds have fought bravely for a homeland, have been patient, have made friends (Russia & US) and have acted with respect, even when disrespected.
Frankly their time has come.
With Russian support, U.S. support, and yes, even Turkish support – if Erdogan can be rational – which I predict he will surprise everyone and be – they can get a little homeland going.
Erdogan won’t ever announce any actual support, I’m not stupid enough to think that — but if something gets done at Sochi, and he doesn’t start a war, that’s a kind of tacit agreement.
I know he doesn’t see this right now, but it would help him, it would help his internal Kurd problem, and my guess is — he just might be figuring that out – and might let Putin/Russia drag him, kicking and screaming, into not using force to counter that reality.
Putin is playing a very interesting game here. Will he use his air power in Afrin to betray his friends the Kurds? I don’t think so, which leaves Erdogan where I described above, despite how unlikely it sounds. Air power is the ultimate vector today, all other vectors are written AFTER that one. I don’t think America is the reason Putin will withhold CAS either.
Putin has some other plan hatching here and everybody, including Erdogan, should figure out what it is.