Steven Mnuchin Debuts Brilliantly
Disclaimer: I am not a Steven Mnuchin fan.
I try not to mix my personal life with the blog, but his bank stole a house — I physically built — a few years ago through a blatantly illegal maneuver, and to be honest, although I tried not to hold a grudge — and let it prejudice my judgment toward the Trump administration and Cabinet – upon review I find I have written about every single Cabinet member and some multiple pieces, but I’ve left Mnuchin alone.
In good conscience I can’t do that anymore because I saw an interview this morning with Steve Liesman on MSNBC, and Mnuchin was terrific, frankly it was the best interview ANY Trump official had given since his inauguration.
Mnuchin hit every single positive note possible, avoided trapping questions from Liesman with ease, confidence, humor, and was smooth while deferring and protecting his boss.
The takeaways were so encouraging; I’ll be smiling all day.
Mnuchin met with the gang of six, Senate and House leaders and then put together the plan they are socializing on the Hill right now.
It will include a serious cut to the corporate tax rate, how deep will depend upon which budget scoring algorithm the more conservative fiscal hawks will agree to. The most optimistic of these will be rejected and that will force the 15% corporate number out of the mix. The middle version, which will allow a gpd growth estimate of 3%, and will be budget neutral, but not revenue neutral, will be the compromise everybody eventually forms around.
Using my estimate of what this model looks like, I predict it will USE dynamic scoring, gdp estimates in the just sub +3% range, and will change a long list of deductions and expensing rules. With the President pushing the DRD’s (Democrats in Republican Districts), and Mnuchin plus Gary Cohn working the back rooms, we can REALISTICALLY expect a new corporate rate, according to my model — of 22.5%. This makes the U.S. competitive again, which as explained — is what’s so important.
Repatriation should come in at 15%, the package will also INCLUDE a middle income tax cut bringing the average family’s tax bill down by 10% after expense and deduction changes are netted.
I think Mnuchin wants to keep Janet Yellin at the Fed and I agree with him.
The President should push Mnuchin forward to speak out on this plan, he did a nearly perfect job this morning, and you can hardly say I was rooting for him.
Even Liesman observed after the interview, it was the first time in 7 months (Liesman is a snowflake) he felt better about the competency of the administration. THAT’S how good Mnuchin did.