2017 looks to be a year of great change
Nothing is certain, but the odds are good we’ll have all or some of the following this year alone:
A new President, and that isn’t all, the two men could not be more different in their approach, deportment, background, philosophy and capability.
A new Senate, I know the Republicans had a majority here before but the difference between a Senate that has a friendly President and the opposite — is dramatic.
A new House, same principle as above, the legislative road has a destination now, the President’s desk, not the round file.
The three above together mean Tax Reform is likely this year and since I think Trump has been talked into the 20% number the House and Senate want, this should move like greased lightening (a number of important Dems also support this change).
This change will add 10% to the total national net income number and that translates into 2,000 DOW points. No joke, tax reform is a big change and I’m not going into all the other “little” ways this will help the economy.
Obamacare will begin to fade away. If Trump is smart and puts someone like Heidi Heitkamp, (the wonderful Democratic Senator from North Dakota) in charge of the legislative compromises — this poorly thought out program will pass away with the least possible pain to the nation.
Immigration Reform is on the list because so many expect it here, but I don’t think it will pass, in the form Trump envisions, this year. Trump will stem the un-vetted refugee flood. He will stop the revolving door of deport and/or release of dangerous criminals – only to re-arrest. But the Wall, the Dreamers question, long-term changes to the system; will all require Democratic votes — and they may come – but not immediately. How do I know this? Half the Republicans are on one side of this issue with half the Democrats. No matter what you do on this issue, it will take large groups from both parties and that means hearings, study, discussion, jockeying, and then after long anguish — a successful vote.
This is not in the cards for Trump in year one even though I know if he were sitting in front of me, he would argue ferociously that I was wrong — and Tweet about me at the end. I could take it if Trump could.
A new Cabinet, and oh boy — what a Cabinet. Trump delivered on his promise to give us the best and the brightest, and if Congress behaves and moves even half of them through confirmation quickly, the third leg of change, a new Regulatory Environment — should also begin in 2017. Although the effects of this probably won’t be felt until 2018, the anticipation of them — will be a propellant this year.
Putin will make up his mind about invading Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania this year. If he doesn’t go this year, he probably won’t go at all. Same with the Chinese and Taiwan, if they don’t invade in the first few months of 2017, it’s probably off for at least 4 or 5 years.
I think ISIL takes a body blow this year. The political will in the West to tolerate and even encourage Muslim extremism has dried up completely. I don’t know if Obama is doing it on purpose or not, but he is nailing the door shut on any moderate positions that might have prevailed by demonstrating for everyone in the world, how foolish it is to negotiate with terrorists. Before all is said and done, the Western powers will shutter mosques, re-impose border controls, and kill 100,000 extremists.