The Chinese and Russian Invasion Plan in detail
One of the Faithful Five asked me how the Chinese put this plan to invade Taiwan together and I agreed to share.
Let me say first, this plan is not new, the communist leadership has NEVER recognized Taiwan as it’s own country and has always looked down the road to when they could attack the “Renegade Province” as they think of it, in order to re-absorb the island into their control.
Deng was the only heavyweight Chinese leader that did not favor this invasion plan — and unfortunately the Xi crowd in charge today — do not feel Deng’s way at all.
This history presented the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) with a lot of hurdles. The attack had to be justified by some legal artifice, which would go beyond the “One China” policy statement the communist Chinese extorted from the U.S. and other countries at the end of the Chinese civil war.
This is why they worked so hard to get an agreement in the 1990’s which (they believe anyway) reaffirms their right to control Taiwan eventually.
They also needed some financial protection and this was even more complicated. After acquiring $4 Trillion in FOREX deposits, they figured out this was not worth much — if the U.S. declared their Bond purchases worthless – after a Taiwan attack.
So, for 5 years now, they have been issuing debt at a staggering rate. What Westerm government observers don’t see – is the reasoning behind all this new debt.
If the U.S. declares their U.S. Bonds forfeit, and they have an equal or GREATER amount of debt to the Western world, the Chinese have calculated this mutual forfeit will be a wash for them.
The PBoC does not agree with this and that is a caution for the Chinese political leaders.
Militarily they know they cannot stand toe to toe with the U.S., but they don’t plan to do that.
Their plan hinges on speed, an unwillingness by the Americans to lose many lives, and finally — U.S. leadership (rightfully) concluding that a LAND war in Asia against an enemy with over a billion people is unwinnable.
Air Power is everything in modern warfare and American Air Power is impressive. If the Americans can get their air force in the battle before or during the period while the main Chinese invasion force is landing, or while the bulk of the PLA and PLAN is still enroute to Taiwan, it’s checkmate.
They have secretly built a special fleet of seaplanes to help cut down travel time for the forward attacking units for exactly this reason.
If, on the other hand, the American air power is delayed, or held off, or unavailable, (for any reason) and they can overwhelm the tiny island in just one week — then the Americans are in checkmate since they don’t believe the Pentagon or the President would ever seriously consider an amphibious assault to take Taiwan back.
This is why planning for the invasion has moved to the front burner recently – PLA leaders see Taiwan defenses as never lower, they see their “Fourth” column resources on Taiwan island — as never more deeply embedded — and they see American leadership in the world, and American resolve in particular, at an all time ebb.
They probably think Kerry is just pretending to be as stupid as he seems, which is one good thing for the U.S.
Even with all that, they also needed to have their currency recognized globally, (almost a Check) AND they needed a Russian agreement to attack the Baltics, since American attention and resources will go there first.
Naturally they also need an air base far out in the South China Sea (Check) to protect their submarine fleet.
Submarines are an important part of this plan because they can offer the PLAN (Peoples Liberation Army Navy) protection from the U.S. Navy carriers.
The super carriers are an important part of how the U.S. projects power in this region.
Subs are cheap, expendable, and carry missiles, which are a serious threat to Aircraft carriers. This is because of the cost differential, if they lose 10 subs but get a missile into a carrier, the U.S. is way behind on that deal; financially, militarily and in souls lost.
The big natural gas deal, which was negotiated by Xi and Putin 2 years ago, was never real. They don’t have the technology to build a pipeline over the terrain ostensibly mapped for that deal and still don’t have the LNG technology needed to do the NEW gas deal they re-negotiated this year to replace the first gas deal.
Both deals called for Russia trading very valuable natural gas for Chinese RMB, which the Russians have no use for.
In other words, these gas deal summits are a cover, the gas deal(s) was a meeting and planning cover, they have really been negotiating and planning a joint invasion; China of Taiwan, and Russia of Ukraine, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania.
A giant Russian armored column — is scheduled to leave from Crimea (under a new missile shield just installed there) in the first week of the attack and appear to be heading for Kiev.
This first move is a feint and only trashes the Minsk agreements — which Putin has already demonstrated he has no respect for.
The real Russian attack is aerial. Putin plans to leap frog past his own Atmy and land a huge paratrooper force in the 3 Baltic States.
Putin covets the city of Riga and has been anxious to prove a war theory of his concerning the effectiveness of paratroopers. This plan kills 2 of those birds with one attack.
To carry off a Russian invasion and win, Putin needed to purge the reluctant military leaders in his own Army, (Check), build a brand new high tech war center, (Check) move a massive Army into Crimea — after conquering it (Check and Check) and also captute the Donetsk airport — from which to launch one of his paratrooper assault divisions. Putin has accomplished all of this in the last 2 years.
Like the Chinese with Taiwan, Putin considers the Baltic States renegade territories that he has some natural right to re-absorb.
In particular, he wants Riga, as a new Western capital for Russia, creating an economic axis between Moscow and this warm water port.
The Baltic States are protected by Article 5 of the NATO treaty, (pay attention Trump) and this is something Putin believes he can get around — BUT the Chinese do not agree with him on that –even though they aren’t telling him that detail.
In fact, unknown to Putin — they are counting on, and hoping on, the belief that the Americans are practical and therefore decide to honor their commitment to NATO first.
This will mean Taiwan is on it’s own for a while — just what the Chinese want.
So just WHEN Karl, my Faithful Five have asked – is all this supposed to happen?
The answer will shock you.
They are planning to do all this in September of this year – while the Russian and Chinese Navies hold a big joint Naval exercise in the South China Sea.
Neither Putin nor Xi actually wants to make the first move however — and that is why the Chinese leadership plans to use the North Korean missile program as a stalking horse.
If the North Koreans, using a NK missile body (and a Chinese missile motor) fitted with a Russian EMP weapon aboard — explode the weapon in the atmosphere over the Sea of Japan — it is believed by their experts this will blind the American satellites at least for a little while. They have actually been practicing this — believe it or not. If Russia than makes her move, China will carry out their plan to invade Taiwan from the Chinese city of Leizhou, a city they have purposely been building rail connections to for a decade now — in anticipation of this event.
It’s an old French fort city, with great harbors, a shielding land mass – all perfectly located for this attempt.
If either the North Koreans or the Russians back out, China will sit still and wait for another chance. They don’t fear Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton and do not know what to make of Donald Trump. He’s unpredictable and the Chinese do not like unpredictable, that’s one reason this plan is on fire in the PLA meetings, they see the possibility of Trump winning as another 8 year delay.
Despite the buzz however, they are MUCH more patient that Putin. Still, even Beijing is tired of waitiing and they have never had this many factors all lined up in their favor.
Most analysts don’t see the hurry but that’s because China suppresses all news of dissent.
The Constitutional Democracy movement in China, is a real threat, and they know it. Hong Kong is proof of that, something PLA leaders are reminding the naysayers toward this plan about — everyday.
Still, Xi does not want a battle to begin that he doesn’t win because this itself will touch off the civil war inside of China he dreads everytime he closes his eyes.
Xi has carried out a huge purge in anticipation of this and has re-asserted tight control over his 88 million strong communist party members — but still — he’s worried.
Lost military battles are not good for any existing leadership in any country.
What can the U.S. do?
The U.S. and her NATO allies have already prepositioned a fast response force in the Baltics but it needs to be much bigger.
The U.S. also needs to shore up Taiwan’s air defenses and make sure China’s “fourth column” strategy within Taiwan is rooted out and broken up.
The western Taiwanese shore batteries will play a key role in destroying an invasion fleet, and they need to make sure these are loyal and have adequate air cover.
I have other suggestions — bur I’m sure the Pentagon has thought of them – at least I pray they have.