Will the Fed raise rates?
Yes. The Fed will move up a quarter point, and this will happen either in June (75%) or July if they don’t move in June. My reasoning is simple, the data they are watching has met their parameters AND I think they want more runway to move back down with rates BUT can’t without going negative and I’m sure they don’t want to do that after what happened when the BOJ went negative earlier this year.
Why are the Chinese devaluing their currency?
A political struggle is ongoing in China with the communists pushing for devaluation and the more conservative PBoC pushing back out of fear this will derail their efforts to switch China from a manufacturing center for the world market to a consumer driven economy that is self supporting. Right now the communists are winning.
Who wins, Trump or Hillary?
She’s got an honesty problem and he has a big mouth. This is a tough call but I think the country is sick of the Bush family and the Clinton family and that will give Trump the edge in the long run.
What is “Normalization”?
The world economy collapsed in 2008 and the Federal Reserve then created, over 5 Trillion in debt through QE and other measures. That money greased the skids and kept the world economy limping along and is exerting a huge amount of pressure on the world monetary system. Can the world and US market be grown enough to “normalize” and absorb that debt? No one knows, it’s never been done, or even tried.
How about Oil?
Still more production then demand but the worst of the oil price crash is over and barrel prices will probably stabilize at between $50 and $55 per barrel. The Saudi’s are driving this and doing it to hurt Iran. These two countries will eventually tangle.