2021 – The coming year with no summer.
From Peter Ferrara in Forbes – “Even rank amateurs among the general public can see that the sun is the dominant influence on the Earth’s temperatures. Even the most politicized scientists know that they cannot deny that solar activity such as sun spot cycles, and variations in solar magnetic fields or in the flux of cosmic rays, have contributed to major climate changes of the past, such as the Little Ice Age, particularly pronounced from roughly 1650 AD to 1850 AD, the Medieval Warm period from about 950 AD to 1250 AD, during which global temperatures were higher than today, and the early 20th century Warming Period from 1910 to 1940 AD. That solar activity, particularly sunspot cycles, is starting to mimic the same patterns that were seen during the Little Ice Age.”
Not so sure I like being called a rank amateur but I can do him one better. In prediction math theory, you don’t just account for the main vectors. However remote the possibility of different low probability events or outcomes, they must be accounted for in the final equation. In business, ownership cuts through this messy math with brutal efficiency, they buy insurance for the entire disaster category of outcomes.
Our political, financial and physical efforts concerning abatement of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) all have a mathematical weakness namely that all the solutions only impact a single contingency, a warming planet.
What if, no matter how remote a possibility under AGW it’s considered, the earth is not warming, but is in fact – cooling — and will soon cool a lot more. Furthermore, and this is very important, what if some of the negative effects of AGW and cooling were the same in either model, (decreased food production) and therefore preparing for that specific problem should be our immediate focus regardless of your belief on temperature forcing?
My recommendation is very simple. If, for any reason, the math behind AGW has a weakness, and in fact the earth is preparing to rapidly cool, such that we might have a repeat of “The year with no summer” (1816) we should be spending some small percentage of the total being spent on AGW against the proposition of temperature rising.
Please follow the math.
If AGW is True or Positive then the Damage divided by Time scale ratio is manageable.
If AGW is just non-existent, then no change is expected.
But what if AGW is False or Negative and the earth is in a very low sunspot cyclical pattern that makes it cold here, really cold here for about 10 years every 205 years or so? And what if (unfortunately) that 205 year mini ice-age, ultra low sunspot cycle was coinciding with another, larger, more long-term, Sun radiation pattern known as the Milankovitch cycles — which was also negative for earth warming energy at this time?
It’s the overlay of these two negatives concurrently, which outweigh by exponential amounts, all other weather factors combined. This in turn drives these severe down turns in temperature, that can cause snowfall, in June, in Kansas.
As a precaution, assuming there is only a 2% chance I am right, we should still ask the farmers to plant fence row to fence this season — and the next — and have the Pentagon buy and store, in processed form, the extra grain.
If next winter is as cold or colder than this one as I predict, remove the existing restrictions on land planting (that conserve as much farm land from production in acreage as the entire state of New York) and really let the farmers grow. If I’m wrong, and two or three years from now the weather still looks good — you will have never lifted the acreage restrictions — but stored some extra grain in long-term storage form, not a bad idea anyway.
Remember, there is a scenario under AGW where the rains, hot temperatures and weather changes from heat forcing also impact the ability to grow food and therefore — even if my cooling theory doesn’t make sense to you — growing extra food for a few years should.
Of course the $64,000 question is, why will the earth cool suddenly, and of course, you googlers and Mr. Ferrara above already know, it’s sunspots, or more specifically a lack of them. When the sunspots disappear from the face of the Sun, the earth cools. They went away in 1816, the year without a summer — and they’re going away now, so it’s going to cool.
We need to grow some extra grain.