The Jewish State
From a Newsmax piece quoting the New York Times:
The president’s about-face can be attributed to concerns by some senior members of the administration that the “public feuding … had become excessive and unseemly, threatening to undermine efforts to build support for a potential Iran deal and to erode Democrats’ political advantage with Jewish voters,” according to the newspaper.
The White House is about 60 days behind the curve. I even wrote an extensive blog piece or two, or three, or four, about how much damage the White House handling of the Iran deal was doing to the Jewish wing of the Democratic Party.
Since I was dead on then, and the White House is so far off the curve, I’ll throw them a bone and predict what is going to happen next so they don’t look so bad 60 days from now.
- This Iranian nuclear deal is dead. The sooner the president can get away from it and blame it on somebody else the sooner he can really repair the rift with the Jewish base of the Democratic Party, it’s most influential, rich, and electorate savvy partition. For me to be wrong about this splitting out of this crucial vote into two blocks (thereby nullifying their effectiveness greatly for the Democrats and expanding it greatly for the Republicans), the following things must ALL happen.
- The Ayatollah must approve the deal. Although this appears likely, I actually rate the long-term chances of that happening — for reasons which have to do solely with internal Iranian politics — at less then 50%.
- The Ayatollah must order the unconditional release of all American prisoners including journalist Jason Reziain. Stupidly the Washington Post where he worked, the White House staff (tone deaf) and the American media (in love with Obama) have all ignored this story but in the end that won’t matter. The American people know he’s there, they know the Iranian’s plan to execute Reziain and they won’t stand for this deal if the Iranian’s don’t let him go and soon. I put the chances of this happening at less than 20%, for reasons opaque to us here in the U.S., but important over there.
- Congress has a locked down, day by day schedule designed into Corker-Cardin so they can stop this monster if it doesn’t look right and boy does it not look right. I give the deal less than a 10% of passing Congress and I suspect their vote counts, with every Jewish influenced Senator on board, will be veto proof, also by a pre-laid plan which is written into the Corker-Cardin compromise.
- The Iranian government itself, if you can call a dictatorship this total a government, must stop attacking other countries, fomenting war, financing civil war and strife and promoting, training and financing terrorism in every corner of the world. Obama and Kerry naively think they can order the P5+1, and Congress, and the media, to all ignore all this other really horrible stuff and just focus on the nuclear deal BUT nobody orders the American people to do anything AND they aren’t buying that bullshit. If the Iranians don’t show a real intention to back down — and soon — the American people aren’t going to want a nuclear treaty with Iran, they’re going to want a war. I don’t think the President sees that coming at all but I assure you, that deep sentiment Americans get when they suspect they are being repeatedly lied to and taken advantage of — is like a string that appears to have no end but turns out to be a fuse. Chances this regime will stop this militaristic behavior? Less than 2%.
- And just why is that? The mullahs aren’t running Iran, General Qasem Soleimani is however. He’s in charge of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, every important military unit, leads his troops in battle, including in Iraq, and is responsible for the strategic and tactical decisions concerning the running on the government and the military. He’s also one of the most dangerous, ambitious and bitter foes the United States has every faced. This man hates us down to his every fiber and he is a formidable and patient opportunist. But above else, the key thing to understand about this man is the nearly pathological thirst he has for the possession of a nuclear bomb. The idea that he would bargain away such a prize for anything is ridiculous. Its like thinking Hitler could have been talked into not attacking Poland and also abandoning his re-armament program. Such an offer from such a man has no credibility and the mullahs aren’t building this bomb, he is. Since I don’t give this man any chance of changing his mind, the 1% chance I have here is only in case a drone happens to get a clear shot at this guy between now and June.
There you have it. The likelihood this deal won’t crater and hurt the President, not to mention the entire Democratic Party, is almost zero. Better to declare a dead duck dinner than to try and fly home on it. The last problem the president has is the most serious. If by some fluke he does get the Ayatollah approval and Congressional approval, what happens to the Democratic Party when the Iranian’s break the deal and test a bomb?
It won’t be Tel Aviv blowing up, it will the Democratic Party without 76% of the Jewish base, and believe you me, they will run in number droves that plentiful. Israel hasn’t spent millions and millions of American tax dollars bringing every Jewish kid in America on birthright and kibbutzim tours for the last 25 years for nothing. War with Israel is war with the United States Mr. President and you may not like that, you may not even think it’s how you would do it – but it’s how the American people see it, and in the end, that will weigh in huge.