From a blog piece I wrote a little while ago predicting first civil war and then division of Yemen. But first, this tidbit from Yahoo news:
“THE UN SPECIAL ENVOY for Yemen warns an emergency meeting of the UN Security Council that events appear to be leading the country ‘to the edge of civil war’ and urged all parties to step back from the brink and resolve the conflict peacefully.”
Here’s my list of predictions, now unfolding:
1. Yemen will soon by two countries, North and South Yemen.
2. The Northern capital Sanaa will be controlled by a coalition of Houthi’s, some tribes and Ali Abdullah Salah, the old warlord who is still pulling many strings there, but is even more invisible than ever. This I don’t see as a sign he’s less powerful, just playing a different game this time.
3. The Southern capital will be Aden and will have a new government lead by Hadi, Salah’s old partner, the official president of the country — if it still existed — and a strong ally of the U.S. The reason the Houthi’s looked shocked when the American Embassy staff fled the capital is sinking in; they weren’t going to negotiate with the Houthi’s, the Americans were going to put their weapons, money, intelligence and Saudi coordinated support behind Hadi in a different location, where he could be protected, surrounded by his base, and operating as a separate entity, South Yemen. Chalk one up for the CIA.
4. Speaking of the CIA; since AQAP is also operating out of South Yemen this will bring a forward operating unit of the CIA and Al-Qaida face to face at a critical time in world history. Too bad we’ll never hear these stories. This prediction is unfortunately WAY WRONG – it looks like the CIA and all Americans have packed up and left.)
5. Saudi troops will deploy in new South Yemen is support of this effort. The Saudis’ have no choice; they cannot allow Iran to open up a front against them in Yemen, something that is occurring as we speak. The only airline and aviation deal the Houthi’s signed so far (for 14 flights a week!) is with Iran. Just follow the money folks; you don’t have to be a spy. If the Houthi’s sign only one deal allowing only one country’s flights in, guess who they’re dealing with?
6. As hard as this is for my readers to believe and I’m having difficulty typing it, this arrangement is actually much better than attempting to sweat out a protection arrangement for Hadi in Sana; with Salah and/or the Houthi’s and separates two peoples who are culturally and religiously different.
7. Man are these strange times. My only suggestion this time would be to accept the permanence of this arrangement and not attempt to force these two countries back together in the future. Break it up. Let it be.