by Karl Spain
If you are thinking I’m going negative on the President, you’re wrong. It’s possible in my way of thinking to really like someone and despise his or her policies. I’m doing even better than that with the President, I really admire and respect the man and I only really dislike some of his policies.
Unfortunately the places I disagree with the President right now, are of such vital importance, they’re getting all the attention.
Bluntly, our White House foreign policy positions vis a vie the Middle East and ISIL and Iran are a mess. I single out the White House because Netanyahu, the Republicans, the Saudi’s, the Jordanians, the Shiite we befriended in the Awakening, the Kurds, Turkey’s Erdogan, the Pentagon, Obama’s new SECDEF Ashton Carter and a list as long as an anchor chain all agree, we need a different policy.
What’s’ wrong with our existing policy? Obama’s vision which I now dare to suggest I understand — I think — hinges on changing the underpinning of foment in the entire region, Iran. His plan hinges on this man, Mullah Khamenei, fundamentally altering his perception, treatment, suspicions and ambitions toward the West and in particular Israel and the United States.
His premise is sound from a scientific point of view. If they (Iran) could be given a fresh slate to draw on, respect at the table, lifting of sanctions, even financial aid I’ll warrant; then why couldn’t they be reasoned with? Other Arab countries are friendly with the U.S., why do we have to be the Great Satan to Iran? For this idea, for this leap of faith that he could bridge this divide and find reason (not see it, find it) on the other side — he has sacrificed much and risked much more.
If he’s right and the Iranians abandon their nuclear program and scale back their world wide terrorist organization, and multi country military training organization, and terrorist and terrorist group funding network, this indeed would be a coup, tantamount to talking Hitler out of attacking Czechoslovakia, Poland, Russia, Austria, Belgium, France, etc.
The real question is, and I could see it on Ashton Carter’s face as he fumbled around every question on this topic at his confirmation hearings, how realistic is to assume the President can achieve this?
To be candid, although I’m praying he has some rabbit up his sleeve, this s how I see his chances.
Deduct 20% because of momentum. At the moment the Iranians are winning, they have spread chaos through Iraq, Syria, Yemen and Libya with more to come, and they see the Great Satan in retreat everywhere they are on the move. This counts because winners rarely negotiate, they’re winning, why negotiate?
Deduct 20% because of the legal environment. Iran is a backward country ruled by a Mullah with absolute life or death power, even if he agrees to something, he can disagree at the last second and you have nothing. This is pre Magna Carta stuff, where the King is the law, very hard to do treaties with these kinds of people. The Iranians will have to over throw these Mullahs and install a real system of governance and justice before we can sign a meaningful treaty with them. Trust but Verify must begin at Trust. Verify without Trust is too onerous and we don’t have Trust in Iran.
Deduct 20% because the intelligence say so. If you think the Americans (meaning WH staff) have a better idea of what the Iranians are thinking behind closed doors during these no-nuke negotiations than the Israeli Mossad (and therefore Netanyahu) you’re living in Colorado.
The Israeli’s know what the Iranians’ are thinking and they’re not partying like it’s 1999, they’re warming up the F-16’s and F’15’s getting ready to do some deep territory strikes against an enemy they don’t think is either exhibiting any signs of change, has ever even considered changing, and in fact, is even more committed to killing both Netanyahu and Obama than either of them could ever really believe.
I believe Obama would sit down with this Mullah if could and reason with him, find a way to show him how much better off his people could be if they were part of the global community. The Mullah for his part — would shoot Obama in the head — if he could, and have him dragged out of the room before prayer service.
It’s just a different way of looking at the world for these two men and the only real difference that matters is that Khamenei understands Obama completely and Obama doesn’t understand Khamenei at all.
Obama’s already negative on this deduction scale but I think mentioning this last tidbit is important. The Iranians are holding for trial, with only a vague charge of espionage, before a hanging judge, in their toughest court, an American citizen named Jason Rezalan.
If the Iranians were sincere about making nice with Obama and giving up the dream of using a thermonuclear device on Tel Aviv, they would have released this man by now.
I think in a few weeks time, he’s going to get the same judgment Obama’s Iran policy eventually will by history; the death sentence.