What must it have been like to live through the 1920’s and 30’s?
Very dark clouds are gathering. Step outside and you can feel a cold wind blowing, even though it’s summer. I’m not a coward, but I’m afraid.
The bad news:
* In the last 6 years, they’ve created $10 trillion dollars in government debt, worldwide; in addition to the debt they would have created, to counter act a worldwide recession.
* Most of Europe, including Germany, the United States, and Japan; the largest economic blocks in the world (excluding China), have collectively posted zero economic growth over the last 6 months. That’s a particularly chilling and nasty stat.
* China’s growth rate has fallen from 12% to 7% during those 6 years and her debt is blossoming, possibly much more than known, since her banking system is not transparent and they also have a second system, with no transparency whatsoever, estimated to be half the size of the legitimate system. Both systems are widely judged to be insolvent by our standards.
* Forget about the charging stock market. That’s like looking at a balloon, that is supposed to inflate and deflate on economic metrics but is constantly inflated by the Federal Reserve’s bond repurchase program. It’s not a reliable barometer anymore. Sort of like an artificial island created after the rain falls a lot, the water floods, and all the animals are gathered there, on the smaller and smaller dry spot, where it’s very crowded.
* Ukraine is a tragedy but not for the Ukrainians like everyone thinks, they’ll fight, lose some people, and gain their true voice after shedding some blood. Heroes will rise. They will gain true independence. The shame is the damage this war, which Russia will unexpectedly lose, will also do to the economy of Russia in the long run, and if any people needed a break, it’s the Russians. Putin has taken a long slow recovery — that had finally begun 10 years ago — and nipped it in the bud with his war ambitions.
* The horrible choice for Russia is by default a horrible choice for a world economy that can’t afford to have another important transitional economy fall completely into the no growth tank. Russia’s economy, poised for the first meaningful growth — threatening to leap beyond 50% of U.S. per capita GDP for the first time ever, is now back on the track which will lead Russia toward the African economies, not the industrialized ones. Damn shame, Putin could have been a hero himself to the Motherland, if he’d been a little more patient and humble.
* Entrepreneurship in the U.S., long a unique underpinning of the U.S. marginal productivity advantage — has withered away and now is half the force it once was. This is a very bad number. The U.S. can overcome any obstacle with her ingenuity, but what does she overcome the obstacles with, if her ingenuity itself is missing?
* There’s only one large landmass, coupled with a large population, in the entire world, that’s doing well, and that’s Australia. Usually when just Australia’s doing well (they’re always doing well), we’re in for a world war, a worldwide depression or both.
* Our age and education demographics are rigged against us as well here in the U.S., we simply don’t have enough young people, period, who additionally are not educated enough — and every industrialized nation in the world, has this same problem.
* I hate to be a pessimist but I also predict this coming winter will be one of the coldest in 100 years and will last so deep into spring, it will badly affect agriculture production in the U.S. and Europe, next summer.
* Tough times are ahead.
The good news:
* I’m thinking…