Conor Lamb vs. Rick Saccone postmortem

Conor Lamb vs. Rick Saccone

This PA (18) district went for Trump by 20% points.

Lamb and Saccone ended in a near tie this week and some Democrats are celebrating while some Republicans are wringing their hands with worry. Is this the blue wave?

What happened?

Lamb, is this analysis, begins at 40% support, and Saccone at 60%.

This was a mid-term chronologically, — and they traditionally run against the incumbent president by 3 percentage points. This is a reliable event, and reflects the American public’s desire to limit the power of the president, no matter who he is.

This puts Lamb at 43% and Saccone at 57%.

Lamb is a conservative Democrat, he is for 2nd amendment gun rights, and against abortion — and he publicized these differences. I think this blunts a big part of Trump’s differential with Democrats and represents 2% more of the electorate, a piece of the Independent vote that is socially liberal but respects life after 20 weeks, and understands the need for gun rights. Christians mostly. This is not a big slice of the electorate, but a very politically aware slice. This moves Lamb to 45% and Saccone to 55%.

Saccone pushed right to work in a union heavy district, and this was very, very stupid.

I think this was another 3%, in fact, it’s one of the only issue’s that showed up in exit polling. Voters heard Trump say “Jobs, Jobs, Jobs” and the return of union manufacturing and industry, and they heard Saccone say “Right to Work” and they immediately thought, “Oh, he’s one of the wrong Republicans.”

This moves Lamb up to 48% and Saccone down to 52%.

Lamb is young, energetic and attractive. Saccone is old, tired looking, and not attractive.

I don’t actually vote on things like this, but 2% of the electorate traditionally does, and Lamb got these voters, this being one of the few non-issue items that also showed up in exit polling. This puts Lamb at 50% and Saccone at 50%. Which is where they ended up.

I put the money down as an equal effect because they both spent plenty of it.

Lamb got away with running as a Democrat while pretending to be a Republican because every liberal political campaign voice in America was quiet — while this PA campaign ran — because they were not running and had no need to broadcast a message. This will not be true during the full mid-terms, and will put a lot of Democrats who think they are safe now, in some jeopardy they don’t see yet — if the liberal wing of the party grabs the issue baton — and batters common sense America with it again.

Lamb understood the negative power of this liberal agenda — even in a special election — and went out of his way to distance himself from Nancy Pelosi. Lots of D candidates could do this also in the mid-terms, but that would be the end of Pelosi of course. It’s difficult to imagine a whole slate of Democratic candidates running against their party’s leadership and that working. Pelosi is at least as bad for a candidate as Trump is — by Lamb’s calculation’s and statements — and I think he’s correct.

This COULD be a referendum on Trump to some degree as well, but judging by the trends listed above, it isn’t a sure sign of a giant blue wave, just a little blue wave of worry for Republicans. The only warning sign I see, is that the Democrats have figured a winning algorithm, which is — to run as Republicans.

Don’t laugh, out of 200 or so possible new Democratic candidates, Pelosi has recruited 50% of them — that’s 100 candidates — from former military, CIA and defense backgrounds.

Pelosi isn’t going to steer the party toward the liberals like everyone thinks, she’s steering it as hard RIGHT as she can pull the wheel. Imagine a blue wave, Democrats rejoicing all over the country as they take back the House — then the reality sets in — when the whips get to work, BECAUSE MOST of these new Congress men and women are pro gun, anti-abortion, and conservative fiscally.

It will still be a Democratic victory in that case, but it won’t be Pelosi’s liberal agenda/party anymore and she will not win the Speaker’s election.

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Nikki Haley Kicks Ass

Nikki Haley Kicks Ass

Nikki Haley never ever disappoints.

She says things in just the right way; so that they ring true right down to your toes.

“The Russians complained recently that we criticize them too much,” Haley said at a special UN meeting called by the Brits after an ex Russian spy who lived in London (and his daughter), got mysteriously poisoned by a rare nerve agent, the Russians are coincidentally known to have.

“If the Russian government stopped using chemical weapons to assassinate its enemies; and if the Russian government stopped helping its Syrian ally to use chemical weapons to kill Syrian children; and if Russia cooperated with the Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons by turning over all information related to this nerve agent, we would stop talking about them.”
Haley said, putting Putin’s propaganda to the truth torch.

“We take no pleasure in having to constantly criticize Russia, but we need Russia to stop giving us so many reasons to do so.” Haley added, once again, showing all the world, what a fine US president she would make some day.

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Larry Kudlow is a good man

Larry Kudlow is a good man

In politics and the media, most of the people are egotistical, aggressive, morally bankrupt overachiever’s with personality disorders.

Every one in a hundred is an honest, decent, morally upstanding guy or gal that got to the top anyway — usually because they were brilliant, and everybody else knew it, and that’s Larry Kudlow to a T.

Kudlow is smart as a whip, and a true gentleman, he will make an excellent replacement for Gary Cohn, a man he knows very well and respects immensely.

I love Trump’s cabinet, and would have had a hard time thinking of a better mix, but Trump never ceases to amaze me, Kudlow for Cohn is a trade up, and Pompeo for Tillerson is a huge trade up.

I think his CIA pick will have trouble in the Senate, because Graham and McCain will RINO her over torture — but we’ll see what Trump has planned.

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Trump shatters a glass ceiling

Tillerson is out.

This is good. Exxon head was shaky choice who never cleared his positions with the president before mouthing them to the press. 

Furthermore, the president has some dicey negotiating to do on trade and North Korea and Tillerson did not represent his views authentically in either of these areas. Put that together with the failure to clear things pattern and you can see why the president’s hand was forced.

Mike Pompeo for Secretary of State.

First in his class at West Point, an Honors grad from Harvard Law after that, elected to Congress, smart capable man with the CIA stint behind him, this was a great choice.

Then Trump shatters a glass ceiling and adds another woman to his cabinet with the choice of a thirty year CIA career veteran, deputy director Gina Haspal for CIA director.

This is the cabinet Democrats dreamed of with Hillary Clinton, with more important woman in challenging positions than ever before in history — but that won’t even be in the story because the MSM lies to you through omission and commission, every single day.

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Oil Prices will not upset Trump’s economy

Some of my friends ask me to prognosticate on certain topics, and economics is among the favorites — and they even sometimes ask HOW I make predictions.

Today is a great example of some data I have just received from a super article by Mike Stone at Reuters that is a key to understanding long-term trends versus short-term blips. Ignore the announcements that blare out of the TV and newspapers everyday, because they don’t really have meaning other than manipulating you. Look at the big picture.

The question is, will Oil Prices, a huge staple of the world’s economy, and it’s finance system — rise or fall, in general, over the next decade?

Good question.

I believe oil will trade in a broad range from $30 to $75 a barrel for most of that decade and will trade in a more narrow band — from $45 to $65 for 50% of that time.

I say this because the major producers of oil in the world, OPEC, the United States and Russia — are all expected to raise production during that time period, into a demand curve that cannot challenge the production capacity increases.

This is true because the OPEC nations currently have idle capacity, and in fact are enforcing production quota’s which represent cuts for them, and some countries like Iran (sanctions hurt the infrastructure) and Venezuela (socialism hurt the infrastructure) have a lot of idle capacity. On top of all that — both Russia and the US are increasing production capacity basically as fast as possible.

What about demand?

Here we need to catch up with Mike Stone’s wonderful story today from Reuters:

Mike Stone / Reuters

The US will supply much of the world’s additional oil for the next few years, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

This is a huge lede.

That US alone, can do this amazing and stabilizing feat is truly a testament to how fracking technology has changed the world.

This means Trump need only keep his policies in place here, for this dramatic world-changing result to naturally occur.

This is a very important development and 5 years ago was not even a remote forecast. Sometimes changes which are obvious, like Senator Heidi Heitkamp’s sponsored legislation to remove the restriction on US energy sales outside the US — don’t happen for years — even though they are obvious.

This time, nothing has to change, Trump doesn’t even need a tweek, beyond the ones he has already done, and is philsophically committed too — he can just leave this beast alone and it will roar.

Stone again — Over the next three years, the US will cover 80 percent of the world’s demand growth, the IEA says in its newly-released Oil 2018 annual report. Canada, Brazil and Norway will cover the remainder, leaving no room for more OPEC supply.

Think this through, if a.) Russia does not expand output ( a problem for them, they need more energy FOREX badly) and b.) OPEC doesn’t either (also a problem for them, they also depend on FOREX to balance their domestic budgets) and the c.) Iranians don’t (if they can’t generate additional FOREX, this probably means regime change in Tehran) and the c.) Venezuelans NEVER get it together (probable), the demand curve STILL doesn’t push on the production curve. One of more of these players will certainly increase production over this period, it’s almost a requirement.

Stone continues — The irony is that the substantial gains in output from shale will only be possible because of the OPEC cuts, which has tightened the market and boosted prices. This fact is not lost on OPEC producers. “If you are a shale oil producer, who brought you back? It was OPEC,” the UAE’s oil minister Suhail Al Mazrouei, said at a recent industry conference, according to Bloomberg. “Without OPEC there’d be chaos in the market.”

Most people thought Saudi Arabia had something else up their sleeve a few years ago when they opened up production to capture market share and blamed the coming shale revolution in the US for the move, now, it looks like that was exactly why they did it, they saw this coming and tried to choke it off the only way they knew how — lower prices to strangle shale investment in the US fields.

They did miscalculate the ROI situation here however. They thought the US shale industry needed prices in the high 60’s to stay viable. That part isn’t true, the Scoop and the Stack combined with parts of the Permian and all viable into the 30’s.

Back to Stone — Indeed, the IEA’s new report paints a pretty gloomy picture for OPEC members, who are hoping to phase out their supply cuts after this year. With non-OPEC supply rising quickly, particularly in the US, OPEC may struggle to figure out a way to increase output without pushing down prices, according to the IEA’s analysis.

That could put pressure on the cartel to keep the production cuts in place for longer than they had wanted, although it seems hard to imagine they maintain the production ceilings for another three or four years. Doing so would mean handicapping themselves and ceding even more market share to US shale and other non-OPEC producers. Still, it is unclear how this plays out – returning to full production, even if phased in gradually, presents its own problems, if the IEA’s forecast is accurate.

Is the IEA’s DEMAND forecast accurate?

No, I think their demand predictions are low, but EVEN if they are much higher than the IEA thinks they will be, there is no way this ever turns into a shortage. Every single increase in price, will entice new levels of production from disparate sources, essentially guaranteeing adequate supply, if not making glut conditions much more common than shortage conditions for at least a decade.

This next paragraph will really make Trump smile.

Stone again — The IEA sees demand for OPEC oil actually declining in absolute terms over the next few years as it is edged out of the market by non-OPEC supply. OPEC production only grows by 750,000 bpd through 2023 under the energy agency’s forecast, although that also takes into account a 700,000-bpd decline in Venezuela.

The bottom line is that the IEA sees oil demand rising by 6.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) by 2023, with more than half of those increases coming from China and India. Meanwhile, supply grows by about 6.4 mb/d, with a whopping 3.7 mb/d coming from the US, nearly 60 percent of the total global supply increase.


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Senate Rules must change

I’ve always been a fan of the Senate rules, but the Democrats have destroyed that.

At the pace they are allowing the president’s nominations to proceed, it will take 10 years or so for President Trump to get all his appointees past the Senate.

This cannot go on, and McConnell can change this — he just hasn’t.

The time has come for McConnell to do the right thing for the American people and change these scheduling holds, so the president can run the country.

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More Collusion!!!

Even the employers are in on it! This is mass collusion.

NYT — Whether you work on Wall Street or in a warehouse, the latest jobs report released by the government on Friday contained good news, with impressive employment gains in low-, middle– and high-wage industries.

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I Smell Collusion!!!

I Smell Collusion!!!

ABC News — Chung said the American president “will meet Kim Jong Un by May to achieve permanent denuclearization.”

In China, Foreign Ministry spokesperson Geng Shuang told reporters that Beijing “welcomes these positive signals” and hopes “all parties could show their political courage.”

In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who spoke to Trump on Thursday night, said Friday that he appreciated “North Korea’s change. We will continue imposing the utmost pressure until North Korea takes specific actions toward thorough, verifiable, and irreversible denuclearization,” Abe said, while also emphasizing that “Japan and the U.S. have been and will be together 100 percent.”

In Russia. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also welcomed the announcement, telling state news agency Tass that Russia sees the planned meeting this as a “a step in the right direction.”

And, in Seoul, South Korea, a spokeswoman for President Moon Jae-in characterized the development as “another great breakthrough.”

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Congressional Black Caucus & Farrakhan

Louis Farrakhan is a racist, an anti-semite and an agitator who despises the very values that uphold this great country. Also — he meets with, and has influence over — seven or eight Congress men and women in the Congressional Black Caucus. They meet with him, we now have pictures. They don’t just grant him access and and a personal hearing, but are now actively supporting him after he continues to make racist and anti-semitic remarks. This would be OK actually if they didn’t run for office repeatedly, decrying racism and anti-semitism.

In other words, I respect free speech but despise hypocrisy.

It won’t matter if Maxine Waters, Gregory Meeks and the other CBC members stay with this message however, because hypocrisy and and hate are the new Democratic platform, so they’ll probably get more votes!

The Democratic Party gerrymandered themselves into increasing left leaning districts, with higher and higher Democratic voter concentrations — until know, all their elected officials are spouting policy positions so far outside the Overton Window, that they are assured of re-election — just in an ever decreasing number of districts.

After these mid-terms, which I expect to be devastating for the Dims, they will be a regional party, concentrated in the West and New York.

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Quiz: What is the only thing Washington, Lincoln and Marx agreed upon?

Quiz: What is the only thing Washington, Lincoln and Marx agreed upon?

I live in a State as liberal as California, which really says it all.

The county I live in tried to ban guns and ammo – 20 years ago! Thank God the NRA stepped in, sued them, and won.

“AP — ANNAPOLIS, Md. — Maryland’s ban on 45 kinds of assault weapons and its 10-round limit on gun magazines were upheld Tuesday by a federal appeals court in a decision that met with a strongly worded dissent.

In a 10-4 ruling, the 4th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Richmond, Virginia, said the guns banned under Maryland’s law aren’t protected by the Second Amendment.”

The ruling is pure nonsense, just liberal talking points couched as law:

“Put simply, we have no power to extend Second Amendment protections to weapons of war,” Judge Robert King wrote for the court, adding that the Supreme Court’s decision in District of Columbia v. Heller explicitly excluded such coverage.”

Thank God Trump is remaking our judiciary as fast as possible – the destruction of a country’s courts is a sign of decline, and these liberal judges in America are that sign.

“AP — Maryland Attorney General Brian Frosh, who led the push for the law in 2013 as a state senator, said it’s “unthinkable that these weapons of war, weapons that caused the carnage in Newtown and in other communities across the country, would be protected by the Second Amendment.”

Brian Frosh, (of course) is actually from my home county.

So is Tom Perez.

It’s a liberal’s paradise here in Montgomery County Maryland — although they don’t call themselves that here – they call themselves Progressives.

Americans have two lines of defense against tyranny, the first is our Constitution and the second is our gun ownership. The first one, the more powerful of the two, is just an idea however, a series of principles that can disappear in the wind, and have, in every country in the world at one time or the other – except here.

Answer: The second line of defense, gun ownership, which is a real physical thing — a real thing that also represents the ONLY thing – George Washington, Abraham Lincoln and Karl Marx ALL agreed upon — that the public should NEVER surrender their firearms.

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