“Global warming“ (due to CO2) is trivial in the grand scheme of Earth’s history. We are not coming out of the Little Ice Age anymore, but we are still coming out of the last glaciation. Just 3,000 years ago we could still walk to Nantucket and Buzzards Bay and the Chesapeake were pastures.
We are in a warm period of the Quaternary – the fourth ice age of the Earth, which began 2.58 million years ago – once the North Pole ice sheet formed. At first there were 41,000 year glaciation cycles, keyed to the tilt of the Earth’s axis. For the last million years, there have been approximately 100,000 year cycles (keyed to the elliptical (cold)/circular (warm) shape of the Earth’s orbit) that have 80,000 years of cold (e.g., ice 2 miles thick in Chicago) and 12-20,000 of warmth (like today). (Milankovitch cycles –https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles ) By the calendar, we are at or well beyond the end of this warm period, the Holocene. However, at the end of most warm periods, all of Florida is underwater. I don’t think we will see Florida disappear, unless glaciation is not triggered for a while or a couple major ice sheets in Antarctica or Greenland slide into the sea. Once movement starts, it takes but a year for a 3-10 or more meter rise of sea level. Think of Noah’s flood and its counterpart in other religions. It is real!
The last glaciation peaked about 20,000 years ago and warming began. The start of glacial retreat on Alexander Island in Antarctica began 18,000 years ago. These dates should be the starting point for calculating the coming glaciation. Warming then accelerated 11,700 years ago, resulted in rapid melting of the remaining ice sheets of North America and Europe This is the official start of the Holocene, but the glaciation left fitfully (start and stop), with full acceleration 8,000 years ago. Beware – the CO2 models don’t include these Milankovitch solar forcing mechanisms and most of the other important factors causing warming. Also be aware that the warming crowd have infiltrated the Wiki sites and modified the science to conform to their agenda. Since concerns switched from cooling to warming some 35 years ago, scientists who disagree with the CO2 folks have been forced out of the room, or not been invited back, or have left in disgust. I think the numbers of each are about equal, and many still left among the CO2 folks have no more scientific training in physics than a school child. The smarter, trained ones have left the room.
When there is no longer any ice at either pole, the ice age will be over and the Earth will have returned to normal. A good site to see these factors is: http://www.climatechangefacts.info. On the CCF sun page you can see how close we are to the next Little Ice Age. Latest Sun Status and Related Information
People often say – “Not my Problem” or “It won’t happen in my lifetime”. Don’t bet on it. The switchover, from glaciation to inter-glacial and back is 2 or 3 years once the Milankovitch physics are in place. But, it requires a trigger. And the trigger occurs very rarely, which is why there are sometimes a few thousand years variation in the start or stop of warm and cold phases.
The trigger to a cold episode is believed to be the simultaneous cold phases of El Niño, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and other ocean currents that bring ice and snow over the N hemisphere, which has most of the land. This can be enhanced by the big planets being located behind the Earth, pulling us away from the Sun. This whiteness immediately increases the reflectivity of the Earth, quickly bringing on glaciation. There is nothing gradual about it. This was presented to me as Polar Region Co-Chair in a UN climate change workshop by paleo-geologists, who trashed the CO2 modelers – particularly because they could not use CO2 to simulate the 100,000 year cycles. They said that the normal melting of most ice and snow in Chicago is about the first couple weeks of March. Once the orbital and axial parameters are in place, and the ocean currents are in a cold phase, the first year sees the ice and snow go away about the middle of April. The Second year it takes until the end of May. The third year it doesn’t go away at all and grows over the next 80,000 years until it is 2 miles thick in Chicago. Right now, February 2021, all the planets our pulling us towards the sun, except that Mars is neutral.
In one year, we will all be on the same side of the Sun, pulling Earth away from the sun. However, this is a heavy gravitational tug on the sun and will churn its engine. I don’t know what the net effect is. It is probably important but I have never seen any numbers. If the tragedy in Texas happened in 2022, with all the planets pulling us away from the sun, it likely would have been worse.
Science is settled – the modelers are wrong. Most even ignore the sun – the true gorilla in the room – and the Milankovitch orbital mechanics. Conversely, the trigger to end glaciation is believed to be the ocean currents all in their warm phases at the same time – once the orbit has become circular (as today), and the Axis tilt and its wobble points the N Hemisphere toward the sun. Did anyone notice that La Niña (cold phase) started in December 2019?
And if you think CO2 at 0.00041 is more important than the sun and our orbital positions, as we Americans like to say, I have a bridge I’d like to sell you – – –
Dr. Ted Tarbell